Summer Reading

Interested in learning more about options? Try reading one of these books:
  • Jon, Sheldon Natenberg's "Options Volatility and Pricing" 
  • Lawrence McMillan's "Options as a Strategic Investment"
  • Nassim Taleb's "Dynamic Hedging"
  • John Hull's "Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives."
Or these for trading:
  • Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness"
  • Benoit Mandelbrot's "The Misbehavior of Markets"
  • Jack Schwager's "Market Wizard" series
  • Roger Lowenstein's "When Genius Failed."
  • "Liar's Poker," by Michael Lewis
  • John Allen Paulos' "A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market"
The following is taken from a post by Chris McKahnn:

Volatility Smile ChartFinally, there is "My Life as a Quant" by Emanuel Derman. This one may be hard to find, as I got it from the local library, but if you like math, physics, or options theory, this is an excellent read. Fighting Paulos' efficient market discussion, Derman takes on the problem of the "volatility smile" (the differing levels of implied volatility for different strikes within a given month).

"I realized that the existence of the smile was completely at odds with Black-Scholes' 20-year-old foundation of options theory. And if the Black-Scholes formula was wrong, so was the predicted sensitivity of an options price to movements in the underlying index, its so-called 'delta.'"

Derman spends much of the book discussing models, their development, their uses, and their limits. His conclusions clearly have been largely ignored, as evidenced by the market turmoil at the end of last year, which many believe to have been caused by over-reliance on models.

"Models are only models, toy-like descriptions of idealized worlds. But no mathematical model can capture the intricacies of human psychology. ... I saw that if you listen to the model's siren song for too long, you may end up on the rocks or in the whirlpool."

August 28, 2009

Yet another slow day. China was down almost 3% last night and I would have expected that to have more influence in today's market action, but no dice. Lower consumer sentiment dragged the market for most of the day. Intel raised their guidance, which helped buoy tech today, but this market already has a lot of good news baked into it, and I think what we're seeing is things beginning to stall.

The McClellan oscillator is showing that the market is poised for a pullback:
McClellan Index 

Disclosure:
At the time of this writing, I had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

August 25, 2009

Consumer confidence helped boost the market up today. However, the Baltic Dry Index is still clearly in a down trend as seen in this chart:
Baltic Dry Index ChartThis should signal that commodities prices are headed lower, and with lower oil, you expect the the large cap oil services stocks to start dragging down the rest of the market.

I am a little concerned that anytime we get any sizeable pullback, all these fund managers that missed the rally are stepping-in and buying the dips. I think they're setting us up for a nastier pullback this fall than we otherwise would have had.

Putting a 20 multiple on earnings, I'd say fair value for the S&P is around 880. When people finally realize that, this market is going to get ugly fast. But for now, it looks like we're going to continue to drift higher.

Disclosure:
At the time of this writing, I had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

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